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wellerstein's profile
Alex Wellerstein
Alex Wellerstein
Alex Wellerstein
Verified account
@wellerstein

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Alex WellersteinVerified account

@wellerstein

Historian of science, secrecy, and nuclear weapons. Professor of STS at @FollowStevens. UC Berkeley alum with a Harvard PhD. NUKEMAP creator. Coder and web dev.

Hoboken, NJ / NYC
blog.nuclearsecrecy.com
Joined September 2011

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    1. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 11 Oct 2017
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      A year or so ago, I gave my undergrad engineers a homework prompt: How many nuclear weapons does the US need to feel secure?

      27 replies 302 retweets 625 likes
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    2. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 11 Oct 2017
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      The answers varied. Some liked the status quo — a few thousand. Some thought you could go down to a few hundred, per UK/France/China.

      2 replies 12 retweets 75 likes
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    3. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 11 Oct 2017
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      Some thought you could go down to a dozen or so. A few thought maybe zero, but most thought a non-zero number sounded more realistic.

      2 replies 10 retweets 75 likes
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    4. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 11 Oct 2017
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      Literally none of them would have said "10X the current number." Not because I'm oppressive. Because it's *stupid.* https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/trump-wanted-dramatic-increase-nuclear-arsenal-meeting-military-leaders-n809701 …

      5 replies 59 retweets 324 likes
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      Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 11 Oct 2017
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      Because it would indicate a fragility the United States does not have. Because they recognize that Russia would feel compelled to match.

      5:01 AM - 11 Oct 2017
      • 18 Retweets
      • 174 Likes
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      2 replies 18 retweets 174 likes
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        2. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 11 Oct 2017
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          Because they recognize that there are costs and risks. Because they recognize that this is a policy question, not a penis-measuring contest.

          2 replies 28 retweets 286 likes
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        3. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 11 Oct 2017
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          The good news here is that literally nobody in the military or government probably thinks that a 10X increase is feasible or a good idea.

          3 replies 19 retweets 165 likes
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        4. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 11 Oct 2017
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          And Trump's attention span is too short, and his will too weak, to pull something like that off. He has no clue what is behind the numbers.

          3 replies 19 retweets 211 likes
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        5. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 11 Oct 2017
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          He doesn't realize that you can't just conjure nukes out of thin air, that they can't just be manufactured at will, on the spot anymore.

          3 replies 9 retweets 125 likes
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        6. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 11 Oct 2017
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          But it confirms again this obvious truth: he is manifestly unfit to be dealing with nuclear weapons. And yet...https://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2016/12/01/no-one-can-stop-president-trump-from-using-nuclear-weapons-thats-by-design/?utm_term=.f299c4136e5d …

          2 replies 52 retweets 266 likes
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        7. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 11 Oct 2017
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          For what it is worth, I do not think it is worth even analyzing this as any kind of realistic policy proposal. It is impossible.

          2 replies 9 retweets 135 likes
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        8. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 11 Oct 2017
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          It is just a sign of his lack of understanding of the issues, and perhaps a window into his own insecurities.

          1 reply 18 retweets 195 likes
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        9. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 11 Oct 2017
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          To illustrate the issue, to produce ~1,000 warheads/year, you need the nuclear complex that Eisenhower had. That took a decade to build.

          2 replies 18 retweets 132 likes
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        10. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 11 Oct 2017
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          That is just the warheads. You would need much more to produce the missiles, subs, bombers, that might carry them. It's not happening.

          10 replies 12 retweets 119 likes
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        11. End of conversation
        1. Belli‏ @bellisaurius 11 Oct 2017
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          Replying to @wellerstein

          Or possibly even not match, deciding they had enough to deter us if need be, leaving us with pure cost.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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