In response to inquiries: Rough simulation (Sept15-29) of #radio-isotope cloud from hypothetical atmospheric burst over Pacific: #CTBT #IMSpic.twitter.com/361ZBkoUy7
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People are going to confuse what look like very low rad levels characteristic of "global fallout" with "local fallout" intensities.
To contrast the difference: on the left is the local fallout estimates of one shot (Bravo, 15Mt, surface/atoll), on the right, the global.pic.twitter.com/1u9tln8bXD
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15 Mt was the yield of the specific shot I was using as an example (Castle Bravo) — that is a BIG bomb (biggest the US ever set off).
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It just happens to be a shot for which we have a lot of ready-made fallout data (local & global), which is why I used it for illustration.
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By contrast, that is about 100 times more powerful (and more radioactive) than whatever bomb the DPRK set off (15,000 kt vs. 150 kt).
End of conversation
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The left is "hurts you bad if you're exposed to it" levels. On the right is, "maybe increases cancer rates by undetectable amounts."
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And while neither are "great," there are real differences there in terms of outcomes and perceptions!
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