Alex WellersteinVerified account

These accumulated risks are enough that I would think that DPRK would *not* choose to try this.

There are only a few "good" outcomes here for DPRK, and they'd be hard to judge the probability of occurring versus the others.

Presumably their military and scientific people are aware of this. If DPRK wants to rattle US, or demonstrate capability, many other ways.

But ultimately, it's up to them—so who knows? Nations have been known to take bad risks in the past. Including "sane" nations like USA.

Hi Alex, what's estimate for how many NK nukes..10..20?? Could pre-emptive strike on sites, eliminate threat & minimise casaulties?

We don't really know, and I think one can assume that a preemptive strike would not end threat without full on war.

And I think one should not be too confident in actually getting everything in a preemptive strike. So you're risking a city in the process.

I don't think that level of risk is worth the possible reward. Hope our generals/leaders feel the same way. Better to just contain/deter.