Testing a live nuclear warhead on an actual ballistic missile is risky from many perspectives, which is why US only did it once in Cold War.
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5a. Missile explodes on launchpad, disperses Pu, causes long-term contamination. Very bad for DPRK (and KJU is he is watching in person)
Right — this is sort of what I had in mind. Either exploding on launchpad, or in air, or whatever. Bad news all around.
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Kim's missiles have not been adequately tested, increasing risk of failure. HS-12 has succeeded in 3 of 6 tests. HS-14 tested only twice.
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Most likely failure is during boost phase, which occured over DPRK territory on prior tests. Does Kim launch from east coast to reduce risk?
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If technical imperatives dominate, a nuke-missile test of HS-12 does not occur until next year, as it is premature to perform such a test.
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