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wellerstein's profile
Alex Wellerstein
Alex Wellerstein
Alex Wellerstein
Verified account
@wellerstein

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Alex WellersteinVerified account

@wellerstein

Historian of science, secrecy, and nuclear weapons. Professor of STS at @FollowStevens. UC Berkeley alum with a Harvard PhD. NUKEMAP creator. Coder and web dev.

Hoboken, NJ / NYC
blog.nuclearsecrecy.com
Joined September 2011

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    1. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 22 Sep 2017
      • Report Tweet

      6. Missile succeeds, but warhead fails/fizzles. Bad for DPRK.

      2 replies 8 retweets 26 likes
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    2. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 22 Sep 2017
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      These accumulated risks are enough that I would think that DPRK would *not* choose to try this.

      4 replies 8 retweets 35 likes
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    3. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 22 Sep 2017
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      There are only a few "good" outcomes here for DPRK, and they'd be hard to judge the probability of occurring versus the others.

      3 replies 12 retweets 23 likes
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    4. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 22 Sep 2017
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      Presumably their military and scientific people are aware of this. If DPRK wants to rattle US, or demonstrate capability, many other ways.

      4 replies 10 retweets 24 likes
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    5. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 22 Sep 2017
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      But ultimately, it's up to them—so who knows? Nations have been known to take bad risks in the past. Including "sane" nations like USA.

      4 replies 11 retweets 33 likes
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    6. Chris Macca‏ @the1macmac 22 Sep 2017
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      Replying to @wellerstein

      Hi Alex, what's estimate for how many NK nukes..10..20?? Could pre-emptive strike on sites, eliminate threat & minimise casaulties?

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
    7. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 22 Sep 2017
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      Replying to @the1macmac

      We don't really know, and I think one can assume that a preemptive strike would not end threat without full on war.

      2 replies 0 retweets 8 likes
    8. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 22 Sep 2017
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      Replying to @wellerstein @the1macmac

      And I think one should not be too confident in actually getting everything in a preemptive strike. So you're risking a city in the process.

      1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
    9. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 22 Sep 2017
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      Replying to @wellerstein @the1macmac

      I don't think that level of risk is worth the possible reward. Hope our generals/leaders feel the same way. Better to just contain/deter.

      2 replies 1 retweet 10 likes
    10. Chris Macca‏ @the1macmac 22 Sep 2017
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      Replying to @wellerstein

      Mate, I'm all for peace & diplomacy, yet it's not going that way with two nutters in charge!! Could SK rescue NK after poss regime change?

      2 replies 0 retweets 1 like
      Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 22 Sep 2017
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      Replying to @the1macmac

      What does "rescue" mean here? "Regime change" means a big war. Don't underestimate its ease.

      5:59 AM - 22 Sep 2017
      • 7 Likes
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      3 replies 0 retweets 7 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 22 Sep 2017
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          Replying to @wellerstein @the1macmac

          When the Germanies reunited, it was a huge economic drain/difficulty. And East Germany hadn't been ravaged by a recent war.

          1 reply 0 retweets 7 likes
        3. Chris Macca‏ @the1macmac 22 Sep 2017
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          Replying to @wellerstein

          Of course, yet it also shows that it can work, given the right framework & intention. Germany is now Germany, NK & SK could become Korea...😋

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Donald Atkinson‏ @Pyrrhogaster 22 Sep 2017
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          Replying to @the1macmac @wellerstein

          Except China is adamantly opposed to the South taking over Korea

          1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
        5. Chris Macca‏ @the1macmac 22 Sep 2017
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          Replying to @Pyrrhogaster @wellerstein

          If it's to benefit of a New Korea & global safety, then I couldn't give two plops what China wants..if anything, they're exacerbating situ!!

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        6. End of conversation
        1. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 22 Sep 2017
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          Replying to @wellerstein @the1macmac

          Tweet correction: "Don't underestimate its ease" meant to read "Don't overestimate its ease" or "underestimate its cost." :-P

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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        2. (((Rob Goldston)))‏ @RobGoldston 22 Sep 2017
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          Replying to @wellerstein @the1macmac

          China won't accept US-imposed regime change. How about if we hold Xi's coat while he imposes one?

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. (((Rob Goldston)))‏ @RobGoldston 22 Sep 2017
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          Replying to @RobGoldston @wellerstein @the1macmac

          Not sure I am serious, btw.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation

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