Alex WellersteinVerified account

Testing a live nuclear warhead on an actual ballistic missile is risky from many perspectives, which is why US only did it once in Cold War.

Risks include: 1. Missile goes off course, detonates somewhere undesirable (e.g. inhabited). Bad. 2. Test mistaken for attack. Double bad.

3. Missile and test work as planned, but area is improperly evacuated. Bad. (Cf., Bravo test.)

4a. Missile gets shot down by people playing with ballistic missile defense. Bad for DPRK.

4b. Ballistic missile defense attempts to shoot it down, but fails to hit it. Good for DPRK, bad for BMD (e.g. US).

5. Missile fails, warhead destroyed, plutonium dispersed. Bad for DPRK, maybe for others (depends where it fails).

6. Missile succeeds, but warhead fails/fizzles. Bad for DPRK.