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wellerstein's profile
Alex Wellerstein
Alex Wellerstein
Alex Wellerstein
Verified account
@wellerstein

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Alex WellersteinVerified account

@wellerstein

Historian of science, secrecy, and nuclear weapons. Professor of STS at @FollowStevens. UC Berkeley alum with a Harvard PhD. NUKEMAP creator. Coder and web dev.

Hoboken, NJ / NYC
blog.nuclearsecrecy.com
Joined September 2011

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    1. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 18 Sep 2017
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      I got to use MISSILEMAP to answer a new question today! Would DPRK be able to reliably target a Japanese nuclear power plant with an ICBM?

      4 replies 4 retweets 5 likes
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    2. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 18 Sep 2017
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      Basically: no. Even with VERY "optimistic" assumptions about their yield/accuracy/pressure required, they would have very little confidence

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    3. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 18 Sep 2017
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      that they could put that blast pressure onto a target as small as a reactor building.

      1 reply 1 retweet 0 likes
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    4. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 18 Sep 2017
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      They are too small, and too "hard," to likely waste a missile on, I suspect.

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    5. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 18 Sep 2017
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      Which I guess is good news? Except that the corollary is that cities make GREAT targets and would kill more people than a reactor strike.

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    6. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 18 Sep 2017
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      My estimates of blast pressure required come from this article and similar publications: https://inis.iaea.org/search/search.aspx?orig_q=RN:2009339 …

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    7. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 18 Sep 2017
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      They don't discuss vulnerability of spent fuel pools to such attacks, but even then, I think it is an unlikely target for DPRK.

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    8. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 18 Sep 2017
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      Note: Does not mean Russia or USA couldn't target reactors. Accuracy + quantity changes the conclusion a LOT. Not very hard with <100m CEP.

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    9. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 18 Sep 2017
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      Here is the basic MISSILEMAP setup I played with. You can change CEP/Blast/Yield to see parameter sensitivity.http://nuclearsecrecy.com/missilemap/?&s=41.202%2C126.691&t=37.0608%2C136.7268&p=dprk_hwasong-14&sp=dprk_changgang&yp=psi200_sb&kt=150&c=3000&r=10000&wr=1&td=60&mt=2&mc=37.0651%2C136.7267&z=13 …

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      Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 18 Sep 2017
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      Note that 200 psi is intentionally VERY "pessimistic" — probably need >1000 psi to breach both containment dome and reactor vessel.

      5:38 AM - 18 Sep 2017
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      • 𖠊Col. Sal- Revolution Pilot𖠃 andrew casilli Meln Clovis M. Kei Eric Gomez
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        1. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 18 Sep 2017
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          (Average overpressure less important than blast impulse. Psi/ft given in source equate to range of 10,000 psi for 10 kt, 1,000 psi for 2Mt.)

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