I got to use MISSILEMAP to answer a new question today! Would DPRK be able to reliably target a Japanese nuclear power plant with an ICBM?
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Which I guess is good news? Except that the corollary is that cities make GREAT targets and would kill more people than a reactor strike.
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My estimates of blast pressure required come from this article and similar publications: https://inis.iaea.org/search/search.aspx?orig_q=RN:2009339 …
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They don't discuss vulnerability of spent fuel pools to such attacks, but even then, I think it is an unlikely target for DPRK.
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Note: Does not mean Russia or USA couldn't target reactors. Accuracy + quantity changes the conclusion a LOT. Not very hard with <100m CEP.
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Here is the basic MISSILEMAP setup I played with. You can change CEP/Blast/Yield to see parameter sensitivity.http://nuclearsecrecy.com/missilemap/?&s=41.202%2C126.691&t=37.0608%2C136.7268&p=dprk_hwasong-14&sp=dprk_changgang&yp=psi200_sb&kt=150&c=3000&r=10000&wr=1&td=60&mt=2&mc=37.0651%2C136.7267&z=13 …
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Note that 200 psi is intentionally VERY "pessimistic" — probably need >1000 psi to breach both containment dome and reactor vessel.
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(Average overpressure less important than blast impulse. Psi/ft given in source equate to range of 10,000 psi for 10 kt, 1,000 psi for 2Mt.)
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End of conversation
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