Some thoughts on "decapitation": US and Soviets both feared "decapitating strikes" during Cold War. What was result?https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/12/world/asia/north-south-korea-decapitation-.html?mcubz=0&_r=0 …
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Not one bit. But they did do something: they developed semi-automated systems that could guarantee nuclear strike in case of decapitation.
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They developed hair-trigger alerts, launch-on-warning, deep bunkers, etc. They developed the means to remain credibly dangerous.
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Read
@thedeadhandbook 's Dead Hand for details on Soviet mindset, and the dangerous ends to which their fears of decapitation led them.Show this thread -
So I don't have a clue what DPRK will do. But I don't think history suggests to us that threatening decapitation will do anything positive.
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Here's a 21st century joke: What's more dangerous than a nuclear-armed North Korean dictator?
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A nuclear-armed North Korean early-warning system!
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We do, incidentally, have historical templates for how to deescalate, how to disarm. But they involve parties feeling safer, not afraid.
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And they involve solutions that work to mutual benefit. E.g., actual diplomacy, actual "deals" (not one-sided grifts), mutual empathy.
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Anyway, I don't claim to know how to get from here to here. And I can see — of course — the value in saying to DPRK, "we can threaten you."
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But it seems unlikely to me that they aren't acutely aware of that already. And if you make them think you are planning preemptive attack...
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