Skip to content
By using Twitter’s services you agree to our Cookies Use. We and our partners operate globally and use cookies, including for analytics, personalisation, and ads.
  • Home Home Home, current page.
  • About

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Language: English
    • Bahasa Indonesia
    • Bahasa Melayu
    • Català
    • Čeština
    • Dansk
    • Deutsch
    • English UK
    • Español
    • Filipino
    • Français
    • Hrvatski
    • Italiano
    • Magyar
    • Nederlands
    • Norsk
    • Polski
    • Português
    • Română
    • Slovenčina
    • Suomi
    • Svenska
    • Tiếng Việt
    • Türkçe
    • Ελληνικά
    • Български език
    • Русский
    • Српски
    • Українська мова
    • עִבְרִית
    • العربية
    • فارسی
    • मराठी
    • हिन्दी
    • বাংলা
    • ગુજરાતી
    • தமிழ்
    • ಕನ್ನಡ
    • ภาษาไทย
    • 한국어
    • 日本語
    • 简体中文
    • 繁體中文
  • Have an account? Log in
    Have an account?
    · Forgot password?
    New to Twitter?
    Sign up
wellerstein's profile
Alex Wellerstein
Alex Wellerstein
Alex Wellerstein
Verified account
@wellerstein

Tweets

Alex WellersteinVerified account

@wellerstein

Historian of science, secrecy, and nuclear weapons. Professor of STS at @FollowStevens. UC Berkeley alum with a Harvard PhD. NUKEMAP creator. Coder and web dev.

Hoboken, NJ / NYC
blog.nuclearsecrecy.com
Joined September 2011

Tweets

  • © 2019 Twitter
  • About
  • Help Center
  • Terms
  • Privacy policy
  • Imprint
  • Cookies
  • Ads info
Dismiss
Previous
Next

Go to a person's profile

Saved searches

  • Remove
  • In this conversation
    Verified accountProtected Tweets @
Suggested users
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @
  • Verified accountProtected Tweets @

Promote this Tweet

Block

  • Tweet with a location

    You can add location information to your Tweets, such as your city or precise location, from the web and via third-party applications. You always have the option to delete your Tweet location history. Learn more

    Your lists

    Create a new list

    Under 100 characters, optional
    Privacy

    Copy link to Tweet

    Embed this Tweet

    Embed this Video

    Add this Tweet to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Add this video to your website by copying the code below. Learn more

    Hmm, there was a problem reaching the server.

    By embedding Twitter content in your website or app, you are agreeing to the Twitter Developer Agreement and Developer Policy.

    Preview

    Why you're seeing this ad

    Log in to Twitter

    · Forgot password?
    Don't have an account? Sign up »

    Sign up for Twitter

    Not on Twitter? Sign up, tune into the things you care about, and get updates as they happen.

    Sign up
    Have an account? Log in »

    Two-way (sending and receiving) short codes:

    Country Code For customers of
    United States 40404 (any)
    Canada 21212 (any)
    United Kingdom 86444 Vodafone, Orange, 3, O2
    Brazil 40404 Nextel, TIM
    Haiti 40404 Digicel, Voila
    Ireland 51210 Vodafone, O2
    India 53000 Bharti Airtel, Videocon, Reliance
    Indonesia 89887 AXIS, 3, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata
    Italy 4880804 Wind
    3424486444 Vodafone
    » See SMS short codes for other countries

    Confirmation

     

    Welcome home!

    This timeline is where you’ll spend most of your time, getting instant updates about what matters to you.

    Tweets not working for you?

    Hover over the profile pic and click the Following button to unfollow any account.

    Say a lot with a little

    When you see a Tweet you love, tap the heart — it lets the person who wrote it know you shared the love.

    Spread the word

    The fastest way to share someone else’s Tweet with your followers is with a Retweet. Tap the icon to send it instantly.

    Join the conversation

    Add your thoughts about any Tweet with a Reply. Find a topic you’re passionate about, and jump right in.

    Learn the latest

    Get instant insight into what people are talking about now.

    Get more of what you love

    Follow more accounts to get instant updates about topics you care about.

    Find what's happening

    See the latest conversations about any topic instantly.

    Never miss a Moment

    Catch up instantly on the best stories happening as they unfold.

    1. Cheryl Rofer‏ @CherylRofer 6 Sep 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @Joshua_Pollack @ArmsControlWonk and

      But that was not the nature of the discussion. There are two issues: 1) what is a prudent conclusion from the data we have and

      1 reply 0 retweets 3 likes
    2. Cheryl Rofer‏ @CherylRofer 6 Sep 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @CherylRofer @Joshua_Pollack and

      2) curiosity (not necessarily idle) about the nature of the North Korean test.

      2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes
    3. Cheryl Rofer‏ @CherylRofer 6 Sep 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @CherylRofer @Joshua_Pollack and

      It is prudent to assume that North Korea has a few* nukes on missiles that can reach the US. *https://nucleardiner.wordpress.com/2017/05/09/estimating-north-koreas-nukes/ …

      1 reply 1 retweet 9 likes
    4. Cheryl Rofer‏ @CherylRofer 6 Sep 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @CherylRofer @Joshua_Pollack and

      But the test could have been of something in the shell that they showed or something else, a two-stage or a boosted design.

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
    5. Joshua H. Pollack‏ @Joshua_Pollack 6 Sep 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @CherylRofer @ArmsControlWonk and

      Sure could. Can't rule out any of these possibilities.

      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
    6. Joshua H. Pollack‏ @Joshua_Pollack 6 Sep 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @Joshua_Pollack @CherylRofer and

      Here's Michael Morell pointing to the folly of presuming that we are safe until conclusively proven otherwise:https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/north-korea-may-already-be-able-to-launch-a-nuclear-attack-on-the-us/2017/09/06/ce375080-9325-11e7-8754-d478688d23b4_story.html?utm_term=.71637c1063b1 …

      1 reply 1 retweet 4 likes
    7. Halvor Kippe‏ @halvorkippe 7 Sep 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @Joshua_Pollack @CherylRofer and

      Given limits on # of tests, materials and RV dimensions, shd expect compact TN device in low hundreds of kt, not Mt anyway, right?

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    8. Cheryl Rofer‏ @CherylRofer 7 Sep 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @halvorkippe @Joshua_Pollack and

      The estimates of the latest test are in the 150 kT (that's *k*T) range. Any nuclear strike on an American city would have 9/11 effects.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 7 Sep 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @CherylRofer @halvorkippe and

      It would be at least 9/11 x 100, in terms of fatalities. 150 kt easily gets you into the +100K deaths in a major urban areas.

      3 replies 1 retweet 6 likes
    10. Halvor Kippe‏ @halvorkippe 7 Sep 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @wellerstein @CherylRofer and

      Yeah, if it's a hit. Any guestimates on CEP at 10 000 km for HS-14? Must be a tough call. Chilling anyway.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 7 Sep 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @halvorkippe @CherylRofer and

      Even without a direct hit, if target is big & soft. @ArmsControlWonk suggested ~2-3km CEP is as good-enough guess http://nuclearsecrecy.com/missilemap/?&s=41.202%2C126.691&t=34.0199%2C-118.2307&p=dprk_hwasong-14&sp=dprk_changgang&yp=psi5_ab&kt=150&c=3000&r=10000&wr=1&a=1&mc=34.0914%2C241.5393&z=10 …

      4:11 PM - 7 Sep 2017
      • 1 Like
      • Sunil S
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        1. New conversation
        1. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 7 Sep 2017
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @wellerstein @halvorkippe and

          His argument was that this was similar to 1st-gen Chinese ICBMs. Even if you went to 5km, which was the R-7's CEP, LA still can't be missed.

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        2. Halvor Kippe‏ @halvorkippe 7 Sep 2017
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @wellerstein @CherylRofer and

          True. And they wd put their best IMUs in their ICBMs. Great job on NukeMap and MissileMap btw!

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
          3. End of conversation

      Loading seems to be taking a while.

      Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.

        Promoted Tweet

        false

        • © 2019 Twitter
        • About
        • Help Center
        • Terms
        • Privacy policy
        • Imprint
        • Cookies
        • Ads info