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wellerstein's profile
Alex Wellerstein
Alex Wellerstein
Alex Wellerstein
Verified account
@wellerstein

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Alex WellersteinVerified account

@wellerstein

Historian of science, secrecy, and nuclear weapons. Professor of STS at @FollowStevens. UC Berkeley alum with a Harvard PhD. NUKEMAP creator. Coder and web dev.

Hoboken, NJ / NYC
blog.nuclearsecrecy.com
Joined September 2011

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    1. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 6 Sep 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @nukestrat @Cirincione

      And if that's the case, then the practical effect is same. I worry that doubt is used by people (not you) who want to avoid accepting this.

      1 reply 0 retweets 10 likes
    2. Cheryl Rofer‏ @CherylRofer 6 Sep 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @wellerstein @nukestrat @Cirincione

      Cheryl Rofer Retweeted Cheryl Rofer

      See my thread. Possible they don't have a compact warhead but a larger boosted/TN device.https://twitter.com/CherylRofer/status/905060149395521536 …

      Cheryl Rofer added,

      Cheryl Rofer @CherylRofer
      This is plausible. Let me give another scenario. https://twitter.com/Joshua_Pollack/status/904902145916456961 …
      Show this thread
      1 reply 1 retweet 9 likes
    3. Joe Cirincione‏Verified account @Cirincione 6 Sep 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @CherylRofer @wellerstein @nukestrat

      It's possible, but the simpler explanation is that the have a H-bomb. New graph from @ctbto_alerts shows range up to 1MTpic.twitter.com/740PDHsc4X

      1 reply 3 retweets 9 likes
    4. Cheryl Rofer‏ @CherylRofer 6 Sep 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @Cirincione @wellerstein and

      What I'm saying is that what they tested may not fit in the case they showed.

      4 replies 1 retweet 9 likes
    5. Adam Mount‏ @ajmount 6 Sep 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @CherylRofer @Cirincione and

      Omg none of you disagree. As a matter of policy, we have to assume it's thermonuclear. As a matter of analysis, we look for evidence.

      1 reply 2 retweets 11 likes
    6. Cheryl Rofer‏ @CherylRofer 6 Sep 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @ajmount @Cirincione and

      I've now said that three ways.

      2 replies 1 retweet 19 likes
    7. Vipin Narang‏ @NarangVipin 6 Sep 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @CherylRofer @ajmount and

      Unless we get a sniff it could be either. Yield is inconclusive alone. Remember Ivy King? 500kT of pure unadulterated fission.

      2 replies 2 retweets 8 likes
    8. Cheryl Rofer‏ @CherylRofer 6 Sep 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @NarangVipin @ajmount and

      And a pretty good sniff at that.

      1 reply 0 retweets 5 likes
    9. Jeffrey Lewis‏Verified account @ArmsControlWonk 6 Sep 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @CherylRofer @NarangVipin and

      I simply don't understand on the insistence for extraordinary evidence to prove an ordinary claim.

      2 replies 0 retweets 21 likes
    10. GeorgeWilliamHerbert‏ @GeorgeWHerbert 6 Sep 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @ArmsControlWonk @CherylRofer and

      The advanced features shown are not ordinary this early in a program. That said, nobody has calibrated recent development programs to know

      5 replies 0 retweets 6 likes
      Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 7 Sep 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @GeorgeWHerbert @ArmsControlWonk and

      Which is only to say: I am not sure the models we have for prog. development (most of which are for powers in the '40s-60s) are good guides.

      5:07 AM - 7 Sep 2017
      • 4 Likes
      • Pavel Velkovsky Albert Lunde GeorgeWilliamHerbert Cheryl Rofer
      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
        1. Cheryl Rofer‏ @CherylRofer 7 Sep 2017
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @wellerstein @GeorgeWHerbert and

          Every nuclear weapons program has been sui generis.

          0 replies 0 retweets 4 likes
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