3/n
Historically, experiences of other proliferators (eg PRC) show 5 nuclear tests is enough to get you to thermonuclear for #NukeTest6pic.twitter.com/j2LExthNok
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3/n DPRK had 6 nuketests in 11 years; didn't start w/Fat Man; vastly better computing & the lessons of history. They can build an H-Bomb.pic.twitter.com/ZxhgWUKAOl
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4/n I am surprised at degree of denial about DPRK missile & nuclear weapon capabilities. I have thoughts on this:https://deusexatomica.wordpress.com/2017/08/06/hes-fucking-crazy-and-we-need-to-nuke-him-first-kim-jong-un-north-korea-and-nuclear-deterrence/ …
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5/n A yield of 100kt (lowball on Mr. Peanut) is equivalent to US W76 which gives a 5psi Radius of Death of 2 miles for optimal airburst.pic.twitter.com/lanv4EJonC
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6/n Check out what 150kt+ (my current fave # for
#NukeTest6) does to Los Angeles or your hometown (ht@wellerstein) https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/ pic.twitter.com/QnL4bPWjFi
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7/n Info on yield & design will depend on what DPRK gives us, if there is venting, what USG says (
), & seismic modeling. So, time!pic.twitter.com/oaPtpjzFrx
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8/n honestly, details don't fucking matter so long as DPRK can fit 100kt (or 50kt as in picture) on an ICBM to US. Which probs can.pic.twitter.com/z3O4a60cI9
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Replying to @NuclearAnthro @wellerstein
What is the risk to a modern city of a firestorm being started by a nuke? Size would seems to not matter as much if the city keeps burning.
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Replying to @Aurelmemus @NuclearAnthro
It's really hard to say. "Would nukes in modern US cities cause firestorms"" is very difficult to resolve argument. See Lynn Eden's book.
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Replying to @wellerstein @Aurelmemus
Said argument also has a really weird and politically charged articulation to nuclear winter debates in the wild in my experience.
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Replying to @NuclearAnthro @Aurelmemus
Yeah. It is one of those areas where uncertainty is very high but political import also seems high. You could say it is... a hot topic.
2:41 PM - 3 Sep 2017
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