Quite a lineup on nuclear weapons in today's @washingtonpost Outlook section!
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Replying to @Joshua_Pollack @washingtonpost
First,
@vermontgmg on the deep, ingrained reluctance to order a nuclear first strike:https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/would-the-president-actually-order-the-use-of-nuclear-weapons/2017/08/18/a7ff0ed8-837d-11e7-ab27-1a21a8e006ab_story.html?utm_term=.9d967f9e3815 …9 replies 3 retweets 13 likes -
Replying to @Joshua_Pollack @WardHayesWilson and
In both cases, Trump can easily be a counter-example if you want him to be. Not clear he has Truman's taboo. Not clear he cares about allies
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Replying to @wellerstein @Joshua_Pollack and
They (taboo and deterrence) are unmeasurable, untestable, and not scientific in any serious sense.
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Replying to @WardHayesWilson @Joshua_Pollack and
The evidence we do have on deterrence is that it is not 100% perfect as a strategy — it can fail for many reasons.
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Replying to @wellerstein @Joshua_Pollack and
Was Khrushchev deterred by the danger of nuclear war in Cuba? Or did he just get a deal he liked? We can’t know.
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Both of those are useful "lessons" from the history, even if their epistemic status not the same as knowing that Pythagorean theorem is true
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Replying to @wellerstein @Joshua_Pollack and
I guess I’m being a bit demanding. But don’t you think a higher standard of evidence is required given the stakes?
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