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wellerstein's profile
Alex Wellerstein
Alex Wellerstein
Alex Wellerstein
Verified account
@wellerstein

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Alex WellersteinVerified account

@wellerstein

Historian of science, secrecy, and nuclear weapons. Professor of STS at @FollowStevens. UC Berkeley alum with a Harvard PhD. NUKEMAP creator. Coder and web dev.

Hoboken, NJ / NYC
blog.nuclearsecrecy.com
Joined September 2011

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    1. Kristian Harstad‏ @KristianHarstad 28 Jul 2017
      • Report Tweet

      Kristian Harstad Retweeted Alex Wellerstein

      Are you confusing circular error probable with single shot probability of kill?...https://twitter.com/wellerstein/status/890999430366756864 …

      Kristian Harstad added,

      Alex WellersteinVerified account @wellerstein
      Replying to @NuclearAnthro @nktpnd and 3 others
      It depends what your imagined target is, whether it is small and hard or large and soft — e.g., military base vs. city. 1/2
      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 28 Jul 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @KristianHarstad

      No. SSPK is derived from CEP. With a soft target the size of, say, Los Angeles, your SSPK approaches 1 no matter what your yield.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Kristian Harstad‏ @KristianHarstad 28 Jul 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @wellerstein

      But you talked about CEP, not SSPK. CEP is radius within which missile lands 50% of time. Nothing to do with target hardness!

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Kristian Harstad‏ @KristianHarstad 28 Jul 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @KristianHarstad @wellerstein

      CEP is, essentially, a measure of a missile's precision - not of its efficacy against target once hit.

      5 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 28 Jul 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @KristianHarstad

      The question was, with, say, 5km CEP, could a 30kt warhead be a credible deterrent? Answer clearly "yes" against large urban targets.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Kristian Harstad‏ @KristianHarstad 28 Jul 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @wellerstein

      No, the question was what the CEP was.pic.twitter.com/LsHox0ZTv7

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 28 Jul 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @KristianHarstad

      I think you only saw part of the thread. Relevance for knowing CEP is its relationship with other variables, of course. I know what CEP is!

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Kristian Harstad‏ @KristianHarstad 28 Jul 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @wellerstein

      Clearly you don't, since you're trying to argue something scientifically inaccurate

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 28 Jul 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @KristianHarstad

      OK, LOL. If you see anything actually inaccurate, feel free to point it out. Right now it looks like you are just confused.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Kristian Harstad‏ @KristianHarstad 28 Jul 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @wellerstein

      Firstly, I did point it out, and even sent you a paper to show why you're wrong. Secondly, I'm a Cambridge educated scientist

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 28 Jul 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @KristianHarstad

      You seem to have missed the content of the Tweet I actually was replying to. Anyway, whatever your education (I have a fancy degree too),

      2:21 PM - 28 Jul 2017
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. Kristian Harstad‏ @KristianHarstad 28 Jul 2017
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @wellerstein

          Childish of you. You accused me of being confused about the science (I'm not) then say that when I point out why? Grow up.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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