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wellerstein's profile
Alex Wellerstein
Alex Wellerstein
Alex Wellerstein
Verified account
@wellerstein

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Alex WellersteinVerified account

@wellerstein

Historian of science, secrecy, and nuclear weapons. Professor of STS at @FollowStevens. UC Berkeley alum with a Harvard PhD. NUKEMAP creator. Coder and web dev.

Hoboken, NJ / NYC
blog.nuclearsecrecy.com
Joined September 2011

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    1. Kristian Harstad‏ @KristianHarstad 28 Jul 2017
      • Report Tweet

      Kristian Harstad Retweeted Alex Wellerstein

      Are you confusing circular error probable with single shot probability of kill?...https://twitter.com/wellerstein/status/890999430366756864 …

      Kristian Harstad added,

      Alex WellersteinVerified account @wellerstein
      Replying to @NuclearAnthro @nktpnd and 3 others
      It depends what your imagined target is, whether it is small and hard or large and soft — e.g., military base vs. city. 1/2
      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 28 Jul 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @KristianHarstad

      No. SSPK is derived from CEP. With a soft target the size of, say, Los Angeles, your SSPK approaches 1 no matter what your yield.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Kristian Harstad‏ @KristianHarstad 28 Jul 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @wellerstein

      But you talked about CEP, not SSPK. CEP is radius within which missile lands 50% of time. Nothing to do with target hardness!

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Kristian Harstad‏ @KristianHarstad 28 Jul 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @KristianHarstad @wellerstein

      CEP is, essentially, a measure of a missile's precision - not of its efficacy against target once hit.

      5 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 28 Jul 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @KristianHarstad

      The question was, with, say, 5km CEP, could a 30kt warhead be a credible deterrent? Answer clearly "yes" against large urban targets.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Kristian Harstad‏ @KristianHarstad 28 Jul 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @wellerstein

      No, the question was what the CEP was.pic.twitter.com/LsHox0ZTv7

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 28 Jul 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @KristianHarstad

      I think you only saw part of the thread. Relevance for knowing CEP is its relationship with other variables, of course. I know what CEP is!

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Kristian Harstad‏ @KristianHarstad 28 Jul 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @wellerstein

      Clearly you don't, since you're trying to argue something scientifically inaccurate

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 28 Jul 2017
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @KristianHarstad

      OK, LOL. If you see anything actually inaccurate, feel free to point it out. Right now it looks like you are just confused.

      2:18 PM - 28 Jul 2017
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        1. Kristian Harstad‏ @KristianHarstad 28 Jul 2017
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @wellerstein

          Firstly, I did point it out, and even sent you a paper to show why you're wrong. Secondly, I'm a Cambridge educated scientist

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        2. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 28 Jul 2017
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @KristianHarstad

          you're acting like a troll. So I'm gonna mute you. Take care!

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Kristian Harstad‏ @KristianHarstad 28 Jul 2017
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @wellerstein

          No, I'm simply pointing out you're incorrect and you can't handle that. Some academic you are

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Kristian Harstad‏ @KristianHarstad 28 Jul 2017
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @KristianHarstad @wellerstein

          Summary: someone asked for missile CEP. You said it depended on target hardness (it doesn't).I corrected you. You threw tantrum

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. Kristian Harstad‏ @KristianHarstad 28 Jul 2017
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @KristianHarstad @wellerstein

          CEP is the radius within which a missile has 50% likelihood of LANDING. Nothing to do with what it does once landed!

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        6. Kristian Harstad‏ @KristianHarstad 28 Jul 2017
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @KristianHarstad @wellerstein

          Whether or not it takes out a target is about its probability of kill, a totally different metric.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        7. Kristian Harstad‏ @KristianHarstad 28 Jul 2017
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @KristianHarstad @wellerstein

          What you fail to realise is that anyone worth their salt knows this, from missile experts to gun experts and many others.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        8. Kristian Harstad‏ @KristianHarstad 28 Jul 2017
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @KristianHarstad @wellerstein

          Misrepresenting the original question, as you did to avoid admitting your obvious error, is both dishonest and pathetic.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        9. 2 more replies

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