Are you confusing circular error probable with single shot probability of kill?...https://twitter.com/wellerstein/status/890999430366756864 …
No. SSPK is derived from CEP. With a soft target the size of, say, Los Angeles, your SSPK approaches 1 no matter what your yield.
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But you talked about CEP, not SSPK. CEP is radius within which missile lands 50% of time. Nothing to do with target hardness!
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CEP is, essentially, a measure of a missile's precision - not of its efficacy against target once hit.
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Eg: see this paper: "Computation of the Circular Error Probable (CEP) and Confidence Intervals in Bombing Tests" http://www.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a476368.pdf …
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