Early #DPRK ICBM data:
45 min flight time
3000km apogee
1000km along the ground
Those are nice round numbers that will get refined.
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Replying to @mhanham
Do you & your folk have any guesses/assumptions about the CEP on these new ones? Or any way to guess?
@ArmsControlWonk@Joshua_Pollack2 replies 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @wellerstein @mhanham and
They might make a CEP claim in state media tonight. Let's see.
2 replies 1 retweet 4 likes -
Replying to @nktpnd @wellerstein and
OH I HOPE SO! I WOULD BE EVER SO HAPPY! But any credible accuracy for a 1gen ICBM I'm aware of needs >30kt yield.
3 replies 0 retweets 1 like -
Replying to @NuclearAnthro @nktpnd and
It depends what your imagined target is, whether it is small and hard or large and soft — e.g., military base vs. city. 1/2
2 replies 0 retweets 3 likes -
Replying to @wellerstein @nktpnd and
True. a mile off while aiming at NYC woth 30kt would still ruin a lot of days. I guess Cold War damage expectancy thinking isn't best here
2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
I'm particularly fond of the "shadow" option in MISSILEMAP for showing area probabilities... this is a 5 psi 30kt airburst, 5km CEP DC+NYC.pic.twitter.com/jTpqkAxbVc
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