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wellerstein's profile
Alex Wellerstein
Alex Wellerstein
Alex Wellerstein
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@wellerstein

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Alex WellersteinVerified account

@wellerstein

Historian of science, secrecy, and nuclear weapons. Professor of STS at @FollowStevens. UC Berkeley alum with a Harvard PhD. NUKEMAP creator. Coder and web dev.

Hoboken, NJ / NYC
blog.nuclearsecrecy.com
Joined September 2011

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    1. Private Joker‏ @pfc_joker 16 Jul 2015
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @wellerstein

      @wellerstein On the Trinity anniversary, a question that has puzzled me for some time now.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    2. Private Joker‏ @pfc_joker 16 Jul 2015
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      Replying to @pfc_joker

      @wellerstein AFAIK the original yield estimate had been 18.6 kt. Later it was updated to 21 kt. Is that true?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    3. Private Joker‏ @pfc_joker 16 Jul 2015
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      Replying to @pfc_joker

      @wellerstein Would be interesting to know 1) when they changed the estimate 2) when the exact value of yield was published for the 1st time

      7 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
    4. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 16 Jul 2015
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      Replying to @pfc_joker

      @pfc_joker They used the figure of "20,000 tons of TNT" pretty immediately as a rough estimate. E.g. Truman's Hiroshima announcement has it.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    5. Private Joker‏ @pfc_joker 16 Jul 2015
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      Replying to @wellerstein

      @wellerstein Thanks. But is it possible to find out when the first "precise" figure was publicly released and what it was, 18.6 kt or 21 kt?

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    6. Private Joker‏ @pfc_joker 16 Jul 2015
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      Replying to @pfc_joker

      @wellerstein I'm interested because "Атомный проект СССР" gives several yield estimates for RDS-1: first 10 kt (blast wave only), then 15 kt

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Private Joker‏ @pfc_joker 16 Jul 2015
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      Replying to @pfc_joker

      @wellerstein ...then 17 kt and finally they seemed to settle with 18.5 kt (in 1951 AFAIR).

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    8. Private Joker‏ @pfc_joker 16 Jul 2015
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      Replying to @pfc_joker

      @wellerstein But the current official yield for RDS-1 is 22 kt, a figure that seems not to have come from the contemporary documents.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    9. Private Joker‏ @pfc_joker 16 Jul 2015
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      Replying to @pfc_joker

      @wellerstein (current official yields for RDS-2, RDS-3 and all the later devices, are, on the contrary, the same as in "Атомный проект")

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    10. Private Joker‏ @pfc_joker 16 Jul 2015
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      Replying to @pfc_joker

      @wellerstein Could it be the case that the official yield of the first test was scaled up because of some prestige considerations?

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 16 Jul 2015
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      Replying to @pfc_joker

      @pfc_joker No clue — presumably you could track it in the US case pretty easily, Soviet case would be harder.

      9:47 AM - 16 Jul 2015
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. Casillic‏ @Casillic 16 Jul 2015
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          Replying to @wellerstein

          @wellerstein @pfc_joker weren't the first estimate based more on blast then revised / fine tuning based on fission product analysis?

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