I think it is highly likely. I knew nothing about this issue until @oliviafermi introduced me to the Tularosa Basin Downwinders, and I included the issue in my Fermi bio, as you know. The effects were long lasting and pervasive, and the USG should compensate descendants.
A provocative article in @BulletinAtomic on the Trinity test from Kathleen Tucker and Bob Alvarez: Did the fallout from the Trinity test cause the spike in infant mortality in New Mexico seen in 1945? I don't know—but it's an interesting question to ask. https://thebulletin.org/2019/07/trinity-the-most-significant-hazard-of-the-entire-manhattan-project/?utm_source=Newsletter&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=Newsletter072219&utm_content=Nuclear_Trinity_071519 …pic.twitter.com/OPaLZyNNPy
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Definitely possible, but would have to see data for more years to be sure.
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The CDC studied it extensively - I think I have the reference to the studies in my book in the notes. Seehttps://www.kunm.org/post/inhabited-desert-untold-story-trinity-test …
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Such prompt effects without very obvious symptoms? How?
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That's a good point. The CDC looked at effects over decades and came up with the conclusion that the increase in illnesses was likely caused by the test. But I don't think they considered the immediate impact.
End of conversation
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