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wellerstein's profile
Alex Wellerstein
Alex Wellerstein
Alex Wellerstein
Verified account
@wellerstein

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Alex WellersteinVerified account

@wellerstein

Historian of science, secrecy, and nuclear weapons. Professor of STS at @FollowStevens. UC Berkeley alum with a Harvard PhD. NUKEMAP creator. Coder and web dev.

Hoboken, NJ / NYC
blog.nuclearsecrecy.com
Joined September 2011

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    1. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein Jun 21
      • Report Tweet

      Hoping to roll out a brand-new NUKEMAP feature next week: proper counting of casualties from multiple, overlapping detonations. After a week of intensive coding and database wizardly I've eliminated the "double-counting" that used to happen. Now, you can only die once! Oh boy! 🤪pic.twitter.com/jWIeo4G73v

      22 replies 80 retweets 288 likes
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    2. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein Jun 21
      • Report Tweet

      I've been wanting to implement this for years, and have worked on it on and off for several summers. I tackled it again from first principles this summer and finally got a solution that works AND is fast-enough for production use. It's a complex SQL query that gets generated.

      1 reply 0 retweets 19 likes
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    3. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein Jun 21
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      I'll probably write a blog post about how it works, for those among you who like these kinds of technical details. There are a few clever things (I think) going on "under the hood." I'm pretty proud of it.

      2 replies 0 retweets 25 likes
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    4. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein Jun 21
      • Report Tweet

      This work was sponsored as part of a broader project sponsored by the Future of Life Institute (@FLIxrisk). Now that this code is done I can implement the next step, which is to calculate nuclear-induced burning based on underlying terrain/urban areas. 😍

      2 replies 0 retweets 19 likes
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      Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein Jun 21
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      So 1 Tsar Bomba on NYC = 7.9 million dead, but 3 Tsar Bombas on exactly the same spot, one after another, "only" kills 9.8 million (and not 23.7 million), because it's whittling away at the population that would have survived the first one. Hooray, science!pic.twitter.com/9WxJc1zudM

      1:11 PM - 21 Jun 2019
      • 4 Retweets
      • 58 Likes
      • ★★★★★★★★ That's 30-50 feral Richs Currie Dobson Jay Sukai emily 🍂 Old Salt Eric.Polsgrove Robert Farley Kelsey D. Atherton
      5 replies 4 retweets 58 likes
        1. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein Jun 21
          • Report Tweet

          There will be some limitations to avoid crashing my database server (if a calculation takes more than 20 seconds, it gives up), but if you've got a good reason to do huge calculations let me know, there are ways I can set it up so it won't constrain you and it won't crash me.

          1 reply 0 retweets 17 likes
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        2. Camilo JdL  🌍 ₿  🐍‏ @CamiloJdL Jun 21
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @wellerstein

          Unless 7.9M people casually decided to voluntarily walk to the bombing original spot on day 1. And then the same on day 2. Talling up a total of exactly 23.7M victims. Small odds don´t matter. #BlackSwans

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein Jun 23
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @CamiloJdL

          To clarify something: this is making the assumption that the weapons are close in time (not days apart). Each bomb does not kill 100% of the people in its total blast range. Each subsequent bomb is "only" affecting survivors.

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
        1. New conversation
        2. Chris‏ @diracdelta Jul 3
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @wellerstein

          Seems like leaving 2 million people needing serious medical aid would create a scenario from hell.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein Jul 3
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          Replying to @diracdelta

          "I'm not saying we wouldn't get our hair mussed..."pic.twitter.com/9BAn6le5H8

          0 replies 1 retweet 0 likes
        4. End of conversation
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        2. Tazuren Savu'len‏ @TazurenSavulen Jun 21
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @wellerstein

          Will the hard cap of 100MT be removed? I want to do a casualty projection of a potential 60GT explosion, but with the 100MT cap, I cannot do that.

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. samuel‏ @Let_Div_E_be_0 Jun 23
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          Replying to @TazurenSavulen @wellerstein

          You might need to consult a physicist on that one

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. burner‏ @xbmuzcommish Jun 23
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          Replying to @Let_Div_E_be_0 @TazurenSavulen @wellerstein

          Theoretically possible if you have enough fuel

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. samuel‏ @Let_Div_E_be_0 Jun 23
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          Replying to @burnersak @TazurenSavulen @wellerstein

          In the “keep adding stages” sense?

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        6. burner‏ @xbmuzcommish Jun 23
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          Replying to @Let_Div_E_be_0 @TazurenSavulen @wellerstein

          Yes

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        7. End of conversation
        1. (((Barak)))‏ @lawnerdbarak Jun 24
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @wellerstein @drfarls

          What if all 3 are at the exact same time? The thermal effect would stretch much further out…

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
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