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Hoping to roll out a brand-new NUKEMAP feature next week: proper counting of casualties from multiple, overlapping detonations. After a week of intensive coding and database wizardly I've eliminated the "double-counting" that used to happen. Now, you can only die once! Oh boy! 
pic.twitter.com/jWIeo4G73v
I've been wanting to implement this for years, and have worked on it on and off for several summers. I tackled it again from first principles this summer and finally got a solution that works AND is fast-enough for production use. It's a complex SQL query that gets generated.
I'll probably write a blog post about how it works, for those among you who like these kinds of technical details. There are a few clever things (I think) going on "under the hood." I'm pretty proud of it.
This work was sponsored as part of a broader project sponsored by the Future of Life Institute (@FLIxrisk). Now that this code is done I can implement the next step, which is to calculate nuclear-induced burning based on underlying terrain/urban areas. 
So 1 Tsar Bomba on NYC = 7.9 million dead, but 3 Tsar Bombas on exactly the same spot, one after another, "only" kills 9.8 million (and not 23.7 million), because it's whittling away at the population that would have survived the first one. Hooray, science!pic.twitter.com/9WxJc1zudM
There will be some limitations to avoid crashing my database server (if a calculation takes more than 20 seconds, it gives up), but if you've got a good reason to do huge calculations let me know, there are ways I can set it up so it won't constrain you and it won't crash me.
Link???
Next week, with any luck! Still doing some bug testing/optimization (and I upgraded the database server by a major version, so it's rebuilding all of the tables, which makes it super slow for the next couple of days).
What is this used for actually?
Giving people a concrete sense of what nuclear weapons can do.
I use it when I teach Intro to IR. The freshman love it. It’s a fantastic teaching tool!!
Will the new version be able to take into account the issue of nuclear fratricide? I can see how that might be difficult to incorporate, but it's worth thinking about.
no, because it doesn't take into account time in air or anything like that. it works sequentially. if you want to assume one of the nukes didn't detonate, just don't detonate it. :-)
I dont believe your numbers. I bet a single blast / strike in NYC would be far worse than what you pretend to estimate. @DarylGKimball @AtomicAnalyst
Well, you can see the methodology here: https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/faq/#casualties … There are many uncertainties, which I readily acknowledge.
I think its obvious that the gov downplays the risks and uncertainties to meet an agenda. I worked on environmental risks in gov 25 years. Its what we do.
One can only die once now? That is disappointing. I had hoped for many Buddhist lifes.
You're a lifesaver!
I see the title for a James Bond movie in here somewhere.
This is fascinating! So basically, use of MIRVs on one city?
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