Alex Wellerstein on Twitter: "Now would a NFU reassure those countries that we are not trying to get into some position where we could wipe out their nuclear arsenals preemptively if we thought we wanted to or had to? I doubt it, not unless it was coupled with other policy changes.… https://t.co/uFWqckpEMS"

@wellerstein

Historian of science, secrecy, and nuclear weapons. Professor of STS at @FollowStevens. UC Berkeley alum with a Harvard PhD. NUKEMAP creator. Coder and web dev.

Hoboken, NJ / NYC

Joined September 2011

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Vipin Narang‏ @NarangVipin Jan 30

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Vipin Narang Retweeted Dan Leone

The main problem with a US pledge of No First Use of nuclear weapons is simple: none of our adversaries would believe it.https://twitter.com/Leone_EXM/status/1090654031129788421 …

Vipin Narang added,

Dan Leone @Leone_EXM

New no-first-use bill by @RepAdamSmith and @SenWarren. http://bit.ly/1stUseSmithWarren …. Legislative text is short and sweet: "It is the policy of the United States to not use nuclear weapons first." Smith = HASC chair. Warren = on SASC, running (possibly) for President.

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Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein Jan 30

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Replying to @NarangVipin

I have to admit (as you've heard me say) that I think the NFU issue is kind of a MacGuffin. It's something that takes up a lot of mental bandwidth but I'm not sure adds up to much, either practically or theoretically. I'm not against it, just not excited by it.

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J M‏ @Jarlemag Jan 30

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Replying to @wellerstein @NarangVipin

Uuh, how about nukes as a deterrent to conventional attack?

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Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein Jan 30

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Replying to @Jarlemag @NarangVipin

We have conventional means of deterring conventional attacks. If we were a militarily-weak state — sure, maybe. But we aren't.

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Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein Jan 30

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Replying to @wellerstein @Jarlemag @NarangVipin

(To put it another, simpler way: Whose behavior do you think would be changed if we had a NFU policy? Russia? China? North Korea? I doubt they'd act any differently, personally.)

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J M‏ @Jarlemag Jan 30

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Replying to @wellerstein @NarangVipin

So is there any situation, for any country, where a NFU policy is worth anything, or do you think it's worthless for all countries? If not always useless, why for the US, but not others?

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Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein Jan 30

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Replying to @Jarlemag @NarangVipin

Well, let's look at China. China had (maybe still has?) a NFU policy. They developed a force structure to match it (a small, hardened arsenal). Does that guarantee NFU in reality? Of course not. Does it reinforce a stated posture? Sure.

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Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein Jan 30

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Replying to @wellerstein @Jarlemag @NarangVipin

If the question is, "why is the US different?" the answer is: because the US is the only power in the world with a huge nuclear arsenal AND a huge conventional arsenal AND is feverishly working on BMD.

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Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein Jan 30

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Replying to @wellerstein @Jarlemag @NarangVipin

Which spooks countries like Russia and China, and spurs them to coming up with their own ways of "rebalancing" the equation (whether that means hypersonics or goofy long range nuclear-powered cruise missiles or whatever).

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Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein Jan 30

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Replying to @wellerstein @Jarlemag @NarangVipin

Now would a NFU reassure those countries that we are not trying to get into some position where we could wipe out their nuclear arsenals preemptively if we thought we wanted to or had to? I doubt it, not unless it was coupled with other policy changes.

10:24 AM - 30 Jan 2019

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1. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein Jan 30
  
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  Replying to @wellerstein @Jarlemag @NarangVipin
  
  But anyway. I am not trying to make an argument for a NFU, or even against it. I can see arguments in favor and against it. I just think it occupies too much of our nuclear policy headspace, since the big, driving issues are separate from this kind of declaratory posture.
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