Alex Wellerstein on Twitter: "I mean it would be a pretty nasty one. Anything with a VN number higher than 12 is getting an H-bomb, at least per their 1958 methodology.… https://t.co/L0ijp8yvcY"

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Thomas Rid‏Verified account @RidT Jan 15

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Okay I'm going to do something slightly unusual here. I'm finishing up my book manuscript right now, ACTIVE MEASURES (http://tinyletter.com/ridt ). One specific set of fact-checking questions is particularly hard—and related to US nuclear targeting in the early 1960s. Bear with me.

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Thomas Rid‏Verified account @RidT Jan 15

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A head's up, for those who need it: to ask my question, I will have to post a few screenshots of top secret nuclear yield requirement tables and targeting lists that were technically never declassified, but that are also publicly available (just very hard to find).pic.twitter.com/SbASeeus3q

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Thomas Rid‏Verified account @RidT Jan 15

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Context: KGB obtained these documents almost certainly form Robert Lee Johnson, a US Army Sgt and spy in Paris in the early 1960s. They were then surfaced and leaked multiple times in bits and pieces in Europe and the US in the 70s & 80s. Johnson's story is also crazy. Source WPpic.twitter.com/LxufqCqxIE

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Thomas Rid‏Verified account @RidT Jan 15

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My question is simple: are these nuclear yield tables genuine? More specifically, did the US Air Force target a range of *West German* cities with nuclear weapons in the early 1960s? West Germany was then a NATO member. See country codes, WG, and city names.pic.twitter.com/J68qfiQZXS

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Thomas Rid‏Verified account @RidT Jan 15

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There are also a large number of Austrian and Finnish targets on these nuclear yield tables. Those countries, however, were not and are not NATO members. My assumption is the tables are genuine (for a number of reasons). Would you agree @LawDavF @heatherwilly @ArmsControlWonk?pic.twitter.com/iLiseYeGID

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Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein Jan 15

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Replying to @RidT @LawDavF and

I checked the target numbers of several of the non-odd ones (e.g. eastern targets) and they match up with the target lists from 1958 that @NSArchive got released. If it's a fake it's an exceptionally good one. https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/nukevault/ebb538-Cold-War-Nuclear-Target-List-Declassified-First-Ever/ …

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Vipin Narang‏ @NarangVipin Jan 15

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Replying to @wellerstein @RidT and

It doesn’t seem fake, but it’s not a US targeting study...it’s something else but I can’t make out what.

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Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein Jan 15

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Replying to @NarangVipin @RidT and

I mean, everything has a VN number, so they're looking at what kind of damage and best kind of pressure used to knock it out. So it's not necessarily a list of US targets but it's all clearly in a targeting context.

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Cheryl Rofer‏ @CherylRofer Jan 15

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Replying to @wellerstein @NarangVipin and

Could it be contingency plans for if those cities were taken by the Soviets?

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Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein Jan 15

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Replying to @CherylRofer @NarangVipin and

I mean it would be a pretty nasty one. Anything with a VN number higher than 12 is getting an H-bomb, at least per their 1958 methodology.

7:28 PM - 15 Jan 2019

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1. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein Jan 15
  
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  Replying to @wellerstein @CherylRofer and
  
  (or such is how I interpret this bit) VN12 means they think it needs 12 psi to knock out. https://nsarchive2.gwu.edu/nukevault/ebb538-Cold-War-Nuclear-Target-List-Declassified-First-Ever/documents/section1.pdf …pic.twitter.com/VIZORSsSjy
  
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