A nuclear attack is a little more than a “radiation emergency.” Just saying... Not sure Go Inside, Stay Inside, and Stay Tuned is the best advice for 20kT (or 200kT) incoming.https://twitter.com/NNSANews/status/1040285990538158082 …
-
1:35Show this thread -
Replying to @NarangVipin
It actually does work out a lot better than any alternatives one might consider, at least according to all of the models that have been run.
3 replies 1 retweet 11 likes -
Replying to @wellerstein @NarangVipin
The most important lesson of this video is that the only effective defense against a nuclear attack is prevention. Once the bomb goes off the lives saved by evacuation vs shelter in place will be a rounding error for the # of casualties.
1 reply 2 retweets 13 likes -
Replying to @gregkoblentz @NarangVipin
It's more than a rounding error according to their models (hundreds of thousands of preventable casualties, maybe more), but sure, prevention is the only true defense. Agreed.
1 reply 0 retweets 1 like -
BUT, that being said, 1. we all know prevention unlikely to be perfect; and 2. there are reasons to believe that getting people to think through this stuff, to talk seriously about personalized consequences, etc., is more engaging than just saying "it's awful and unthinkable."
1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes -
If #2 is true — if talking about this kind of thing seriously actually does produce a change in the salience of the risk — then it may be a precondition to getting mass action or support for #1. That's part of the thesis of the Reinventing Civil Defense project.
2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes -
Replying to @wellerstein @NarangVipin
If #1 is the goal then I support #2 but I don't think that is what is motivating the CDC/FEMA video or the lessons that viewers will derive from it. That is one reason I liked
@ArmsControlWonk use of real testimony of Hiroshima survivors in the 2020 Commission Report1 reply 3 retweets 2 likes -
I'm not suggesting #2 is part of CDC/FEMA/DHS goals — they are *our* (RCD) goals. They may be inadvertent outcomes of gov't work, though. That is something we are trying to test.
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes -
Replying to @wellerstein @gregkoblentz and
It is an open, empirical question as to whether even "sanitized" CD works towards #2. I think "Duck and Cover" drills had more to do with the later anti-nuclear movement, for example, than people realize (and certainly that was not the goal of the FCDA).
1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
The latter is a historical hunch on my part (supported by anecdata, but not testable). But one can test how exposure to these sorts of materials impacts policy attitudes on people today (and we are doing this).
-
-
Can’t wait to see the results of your research.
0 replies 0 retweets 1 likeThanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
-
Loading seems to be taking a while.
Twitter may be over capacity or experiencing a momentary hiccup. Try again or visit Twitter Status for more information.