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wellerstein's profile
Alex Wellerstein
Alex Wellerstein
Alex Wellerstein
Verified account
@wellerstein

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Alex WellersteinVerified account

@wellerstein

Historian of science, secrecy, and nuclear weapons. Professor of STS at @FollowStevens. UC Berkeley alum with a Harvard PhD. NUKEMAP creator. Coder and web dev.

Hoboken, NJ / NYC
blog.nuclearsecrecy.com
Joined September 2011

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    1. Vipin Narang‏ @NarangVipin 15 Sep 2018
      • Report Tweet

      Vipin Narang Retweeted NNSA

      A nuclear attack is a little more than a “radiation emergency.” Just saying... Not sure Go Inside, Stay Inside, and Stay Tuned is the best advice for 20kT (or 200kT) incoming.https://twitter.com/NNSANews/status/1040285990538158082 …

      Vipin Narang added,

      1:35
      NNSAVerified account @NNSANews
      To protect yourself in a #radiation emergency, you should Go Inside, Stay Inside, and Stay Tuned. @CDCGov @ReadyGov #NatlPrep pic.twitter.com/fxVekh8xUb
      11 replies 15 retweets 42 likes
      Show this thread
    2. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 15 Sep 2018
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @NarangVipin

      It actually does work out a lot better than any alternatives one might consider, at least according to all of the models that have been run.

      3 replies 1 retweet 11 likes
    3. Gregory Koblentz‏ @gregkoblentz 15 Sep 2018
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @wellerstein @NarangVipin

      The most important lesson of this video is that the only effective defense against a nuclear attack is prevention. Once the bomb goes off the lives saved by evacuation vs shelter in place will be a rounding error for the # of casualties.

      1 reply 2 retweets 13 likes
    4. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 15 Sep 2018
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @gregkoblentz @NarangVipin

      It's more than a rounding error according to their models (hundreds of thousands of preventable casualties, maybe more), but sure, prevention is the only true defense. Agreed.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
    5. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 15 Sep 2018
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      Replying to @wellerstein @gregkoblentz @NarangVipin

      BUT, that being said, 1. we all know prevention unlikely to be perfect; and 2. there are reasons to believe that getting people to think through this stuff, to talk seriously about personalized consequences, etc., is more engaging than just saying "it's awful and unthinkable."

      1 reply 0 retweets 2 likes
    6. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 15 Sep 2018
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      Replying to @wellerstein @gregkoblentz @NarangVipin

      If #2 is true — if talking about this kind of thing seriously actually does produce a change in the salience of the risk — then it may be a precondition to getting mass action or support for #1. That's part of the thesis of the Reinventing Civil Defense project.

      2 replies 0 retweets 2 likes
    7. Gregory Koblentz‏ @gregkoblentz 15 Sep 2018
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      Replying to @wellerstein @NarangVipin

      If #1 is the goal then I support #2 but I don't think that is what is motivating the CDC/FEMA video or the lessons that viewers will derive from it. That is one reason I liked @ArmsControlWonk use of real testimony of Hiroshima survivors in the 2020 Commission Report

      1 reply 3 retweets 2 likes
    8. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 15 Sep 2018
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      Replying to @gregkoblentz @NarangVipin @ArmsControlWonk

      I'm not suggesting #2 is part of CDC/FEMA/DHS goals — they are *our* (RCD) goals. They may be inadvertent outcomes of gov't work, though. That is something we are trying to test.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 15 Sep 2018
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      Replying to @wellerstein @gregkoblentz and

      It is an open, empirical question as to whether even "sanitized" CD works towards #2. I think "Duck and Cover" drills had more to do with the later anti-nuclear movement, for example, than people realize (and certainly that was not the goal of the FCDA).

      4:01 PM - 15 Sep 2018
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 15 Sep 2018
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          Replying to @wellerstein @gregkoblentz and

          The latter is a historical hunch on my part (supported by anecdata, but not testable). But one can test how exposure to these sorts of materials impacts policy attitudes on people today (and we are doing this).

          1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
        3. Gregory Koblentz‏ @gregkoblentz 15 Sep 2018
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @wellerstein @NarangVipin @ArmsControlWonk

          Can’t wait to see the results of your research.

          0 replies 0 retweets 1 like
        4. End of conversation

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