A nuclear attack is a little more than a “radiation emergency.” Just saying... Not sure Go Inside, Stay Inside, and Stay Tuned is the best advice for 20kT (or 200kT) incoming.https://twitter.com/NNSANews/status/1040285990538158082 …
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Replying to @NarangVipin
It actually does work out a lot better than any alternatives one might consider, at least according to all of the models that have been run.
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Replying to @wellerstein @NarangVipin
I think one has to take into account the fact that they can't say, "obviously a lot of people would just get killed." That's not really in their vocabulary for a lot of reasons, though they all know this.
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Replying to @wellerstein @NarangVipin
With that out of the way, you have to look at ways of limiting the preventable casualties. Being inside is better than being outside by a LONG shot, both for the initial effects (blast, heat, acute radiation), and DEFINITELY for the delayed effects (fallout).
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Replying to @wellerstein @NarangVipin
Absolute worst-case scenario in all of these models are people trying to haplessly flee the area, either before or after, and clogging the roads. Cars give no protection from anything, and clogged roads hinder all emergency activity.
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Replying to @wellerstein
I was sort of being facetious. I know the line and the models. I’m just confused why they are referring to a nuclear yield event euphemistically here. And following a yield event, it’ll be utter pandemonium and my instinct is to account for that rather than hope ppl will stay in.
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Replying to @NarangVipin
I don't think we have good models for what people will actually do in this situation. (Or, at least, I don't trust any of the assumptions made by the models out there.) But I do think we can think about what we'd like them to do — and work on that behavior modification.
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Replying to @wellerstein @NarangVipin
(Which is what we do for earthquakes, tornadoes, tsunamis, hurricanes, even nuclear power plant emergencies for communities nearby. And what we used to do for nuclear weapons...)
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The problem with the way it is currently being done is that occasionally the gov't will put out some "get inside stay inside stuff," but it's not really done in an impactful way. Research by my colleagues here suggests that vast majority of Americans are not familiar with phrase.
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Replying to @wellerstein @NarangVipin
Did not the Hawaii EMS provide a useful data point?
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