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I don't think we have good models for what people will actually do in this situation. (Or, at least, I don't trust any of the assumptions made by the models out there.) But I do think we can think about what we'd like them to do — and work on that behavior modification.
(Which is what we do for earthquakes, tornadoes, tsunamis, hurricanes, even nuclear power plant emergencies for communities nearby. And what we used to do for nuclear weapons...)
The problem with the way it is currently being done is that occasionally the gov't will put out some "get inside stay inside stuff," but it's not really done in an impactful way. Research by my colleagues here suggests that vast majority of Americans are not familiar with phrase.
But to do that, one must admit the possibility of a nuclear attack. The probability of that was very, very low for a couple of decades. Now it's being ramped up.
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