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None of the above, obviously, should be read to imply that this wouldn't be a HUGE deal no matter what. And I wish the feds were able to admit the scale of the thing — it's my biggest issue with how they give nuclear information.
Their advice is actually evidence-based and solid, based on about a decade of research on the question of best practices for 21st century threats (singular nuke detonations in the kiloton range). But when it seems overly saccharine, it is easy to discount as inadequate.
I have talked with reps from DHS, FEMA, LLNL, about this issue. They feel quite limited by the fact that people freak out no matter what they say. It's a tricky situation for them, and one that often results in practically no messaging at all.
Which I would argue (and do, frequently!) is actually a very dangerous state of things. Because you and I both know that the possibility of something like this happening is non-zero.
Perhaps unfairly from Cold War days, I think many of us also have a kneejerk sense that promotion of CD is part of a larger package of making nuclear war "thinkable".
I think having it be "thinkable" for the population is a better situation than it being "unthought," which is what the alternative appears to be. There is no evidence that CD programs made *any* gov't more willing to undertake risky activity, as an aside.
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