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And I think most people don't realize that even a very crappy shelter (protection fact or of 3 or so) can put a big cut in the amount of radiation you absorb over the crucial 36 hours or so of the first, intense fission products.
(And the "Stay Tuned" is meant to indicate that in some cases, evacuation MAY be a better idea, but it is going to depend on a lot of circumstances that individual people aren't going to be able to evaluate on the fly.)
None of the above, obviously, should be read to imply that this wouldn't be a HUGE deal no matter what. And I wish the feds were able to admit the scale of the thing — it's my biggest issue with how they give nuclear information.
Their advice is actually evidence-based and solid, based on about a decade of research on the question of best practices for 21st century threats (singular nuke detonations in the kiloton range). But when it seems overly saccharine, it is easy to discount as inadequate.
I have talked with reps from DHS, FEMA, LLNL, about this issue. They feel quite limited by the fact that people freak out no matter what they say. It's a tricky situation for them, and one that often results in practically no messaging at all.
Which I would argue (and do, frequently!) is actually a very dangerous state of things. Because you and I both know that the possibility of something like this happening is non-zero.
“Stay tuned,” how? To what? What’s going to be broadcasting within the immediate fallout zone? What’s going to be receiving? EMP? Power?
Depends on the situation (EMP is not going to be as big a deal as people think), but yes, I agree, the ability of the infrastructure to still be operating is a huge assumption. Esp. in a world where FM radios are more and more scarce.
Depends on burst and yield. But modern electronics aren’t exactly “hardened” against EMP, and ionizing radiation isn’t exactly friendly to microprocessors in, I don’t know... everything.
If we are imagining a terrorist or DPRK attack, we probably aren't talking about a very high altitude burst. That means a much diminished EMP with very diminished range. I don't think it will matter relative to the other more immediate effects of the blast in that situation.
To put it another way: for a surface or near surface EMP, if you are close enough for the EMP to be an issue, you are probably too close to worry about it in the first place. It won't be the EMP that fries your phone in that situation.
Yes. Old cold warrior here. “Ass to the blast and balls to the wall,” was relevant guidance at sea. Here at home, well, move to Montana and become a prepper. No good options except adults in charge and sane foreign policy. More worried about slow moving disasters like climate.
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