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Absolute worst-case scenario in all of these models are people trying to haplessly flee the area, either before or after, and clogging the roads. Cars give no protection from anything, and clogged roads hinder all emergency activity.
And I think most people don't realize that even a very crappy shelter (protection fact or of 3 or so) can put a big cut in the amount of radiation you absorb over the crucial 36 hours or so of the first, intense fission products.
(And the "Stay Tuned" is meant to indicate that in some cases, evacuation MAY be a better idea, but it is going to depend on a lot of circumstances that individual people aren't going to be able to evaluate on the fly.)
None of the above, obviously, should be read to imply that this wouldn't be a HUGE deal no matter what. And I wish the feds were able to admit the scale of the thing — it's my biggest issue with how they give nuclear information.
Their advice is actually evidence-based and solid, based on about a decade of research on the question of best practices for 21st century threats (singular nuke detonations in the kiloton range). But when it seems overly saccharine, it is easy to discount as inadequate.
I have talked with reps from DHS, FEMA, LLNL, about this issue. They feel quite limited by the fact that people freak out no matter what they say. It's a tricky situation for them, and one that often results in practically no messaging at all.
Which I would argue (and do, frequently!) is actually a very dangerous state of things. Because you and I both know that the possibility of something like this happening is non-zero.
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