Both good threads, but with due respect to @wellerstein - whose work I admire - @baseballcrank is correct. Alex’s view seems rooted in old-school Cold War revisionism.https://twitter.com/EsotericCD/status/1027732601098981377 …
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It doesn't dispute that Hiroshima had an impact, but it argues that the impact of the Soviet invasion has been understated. It is compelling on this front. Separately, Walker's review of A-bomb historiography is worth the read, and very fair.https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1467-7709.2005.00476.x …
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Your conflating two issues. One is what objectively would make the Japanese surrender. As you note, no one can predict this. The other is whether there was any real alternative to dropping the bomb. There wasn’t, not in this historical context.
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Sure there were. They could have: 1. relented on the unconditional surrender 2. withheld the bomb while the pursued diplomacy given the invasion wasn't to take place for months 3. dropped one bomb and given the Japanese more time to respond etc....
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These are all terrific options if you consider them completely out of the historical context.
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No, they all fit well within the historical context as many eminent historians have argued- as some in the Truman administration argued.
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Many? Fewer. And at least one of them is distinctly dishonest in his approach. I know this because when the Truman papers were opened up in the 90s, and some of his main points were disproven, his exact words to me were: “I don’t care. It was wrong.”
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This is why I brought up historical revisionism. The question of Truman and the bomb is still intimately bound up with the feelings modern historians have about nuclear weapons and the origins of the Cold War.
End of conversation
New conversation -
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