I think the best evidence for the truth of the "two bombs and surrender" story is a) that Hirohito went out of his way to mention the atomic bombs in his surrender speech, and b) that the people who argue otherwise invariably have to lie about what happened, to make their case.https://twitter.com/wellerstein/status/1027581987874394112 …
c2) And that framing — "2 bombs on 2 cities in 3 days OR invasion" — was created by people who wanted, in the postwar, to justify the bombing. They felt the need to do that because several military leaders, like Eisenhower and Leahy, went on the record saying it was unnecessary.
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d) You can say it's Cold War propaganda (and hey, what wasn't, at some point?) but again, the people saying it wasn't necessary in the 1940s and 1950s were not Communists. They were Republicans and military leaders. For what it's worth. The politics have shifted, obviously.
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e) Lastly, I am not actually saying (in my thread) that the bombs were unnecessary (I think Nagasaki probably was, but Hiroshima is unclear), and I'm not saying they were just used to scare Stalin (for Byrnes in particular, that was explicitly a motivation, but one of several).
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e2) I think that interpretation — the "we knew we didn't have to use it, and we used it just to scare the Soviets" — is also incorrect. For whatever it is worth. Again, I think the reality is complicated and doesn't fit into simple political parables.
End of conversation
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