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wellerstein's profile
Alex Wellerstein
Alex Wellerstein
Alex Wellerstein
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@wellerstein

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Alex WellersteinVerified account

@wellerstein

Historian of science, secrecy, and nuclear weapons. Professor of STS at @FollowStevens. UC Berkeley alum with a Harvard PhD. NUKEMAP creator. Coder and web dev.

Hoboken, NJ / NYC
blog.nuclearsecrecy.com
Joined September 2011

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    1. Stephen St.Onge‏ @Saintonge235 9 Aug 2018
      • Report Tweet

      Stephen St.Onge Retweeted Alex Wellerstein

      I think the best evidence for the truth of the "two bombs and surrender" story is a) that Hirohito went out of his way to mention the atomic bombs in his surrender speech, and b) that the people who argue otherwise invariably have to lie about what happened, to make their case.https://twitter.com/wellerstein/status/1027581987874394112 …

      Stephen St.Onge added,

      Alex WellersteinVerified account @wellerstein
      What I do think a balanced account of the timeline indicates, though, is how inadequate the simplistic "two bombs and surrender" version of the story is. It's much more complex than that, much less straightforward, and doesn't lean into easy propaganda one way or the other.
      Show this thread
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    2. Stephen St.Onge‏ @Saintonge235 9 Aug 2018
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      When you tell the truth about what the U.S. knew and what the Japanese did, you can't find any evidence that the war would have ended for months more. Even a surrender before the invasion would have meant hundreds of thousands of Allied civilian deaths, and continued fighting.

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    3. Stephen St.Onge‏ @Saintonge235 9 Aug 2018
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      And the invasion was expected to kill hundreds of thousands of Allied troops, and a million or so Japanese military and civilians.

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    4. Stephen St.Onge‏ @Saintonge235 9 Aug 2018
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      Finally, the idea that the bomb wasn't necessary, and the U.S. knew it, was part of Stalin's Cold War propaganda. 'The Japanese were going to surrender soon, the U.S. knew it, the dropped the bombs in an attempt to frighten us.' All lies.

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    5. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 9 Aug 2018
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      Replying to @Saintonge235

      Briefly: a) Historians (and most people) know that speeches by heads of state rarely give full indication of internal thinking and motivation; it's why we look at the meetings, etc., that went into the crafting of said speeches.

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    6. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 9 Aug 2018
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      Replying to @wellerstein @Saintonge235

      b) I don't think I said anything about when the war would have ended. I did note that the US Strategic Bombing Survey concluded, in 1945, that it would have ended without the atomic bombs, or invasion. I just bring that up to suggest that it's not some kind of revisionist idea.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
    7. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 9 Aug 2018
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      Replying to @wellerstein @Saintonge235

      c) I think everyone can agree that an American land invasion would have been bad, even if the details are debatable. Framing it as "two bombs versus invasion" does not, however, incapsulate the options on the table at the time.http://blog.nuclearsecrecy.com/2015/08/03/were-there-alternatives-to-the-atomic-bombings/ …

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      Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 9 Aug 2018
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      Replying to @wellerstein @Saintonge235

      c2) And that framing — "2 bombs on 2 cities in 3 days OR invasion" — was created by people who wanted, in the postwar, to justify the bombing. They felt the need to do that because several military leaders, like Eisenhower and Leahy, went on the record saying it was unnecessary.

      6:06 PM - 9 Aug 2018
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        2. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 9 Aug 2018
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          Replying to @wellerstein @Saintonge235

          d) You can say it's Cold War propaganda (and hey, what wasn't, at some point?) but again, the people saying it wasn't necessary in the 1940s and 1950s were not Communists. They were Republicans and military leaders. For what it's worth. The politics have shifted, obviously.

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        3. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 9 Aug 2018
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          Replying to @wellerstein @Saintonge235

          e) Lastly, I am not actually saying (in my thread) that the bombs were unnecessary (I think Nagasaki probably was, but Hiroshima is unclear), and I'm not saying they were just used to scare Stalin (for Byrnes in particular, that was explicitly a motivation, but one of several).

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        4. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 9 Aug 2018
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          Replying to @wellerstein @Saintonge235

          e2) I think that interpretation — the "we knew we didn't have to use it, and we used it just to scare the Soviets" — is also incorrect. For whatever it is worth. Again, I think the reality is complicated and doesn't fit into simple political parables.

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        5. End of conversation

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