They offered conditional surrender on August 10th. The US rejected this and dropped some more conventional bombs on them while they had an attempted coup. Then on August 14th the Emperor gave his radio broadcast accepting unconditional surrender.
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Time machine! How many times to run the experiment b/f we can get a p < .05 out of it?
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(And to clarify a thing: I'm not saying I think Ward is totally wrong. I'm just saying, I don't have a huge amount of confidence in saying one thing or another "ended the war." I am happy to emphasize the relative importance of the Soviet intervention — it deserves attention.)
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