1. The absolute hardest part about building a nuke is getting fissile material, not "secrets" or information. 2. Nobody who studies nuke issues (and doesn't have a contract with the Pentagon) has any strong faith that ballistic missile defense would work in a real-world crisis.https://twitter.com/Mantia/status/1013559718759956481 …
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it does mean that they should not be used as a strong "crutch" in our discussions about deterrence, etc., or give policymakers (or citizens) the confidence to escalate situations.
I worry very much when I hear US officials declare how well BMD "works" and use that as essentially an argument for, say, preemptive strikes. Even a BMD supporter should not be eager to test if BMD works in the real world.
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And in the long run, BMD systems — even ones that worked — will just encourage alternative means of delivery. Nuclear nations aren't just gonna say, "you got us, we give up!"
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We are already seeing this with China and Russia (hypersonic, long range cruise, etc.), and there are low-tech approaches too (which are perhaps scarier than ballistic missiles, like smuggled weapons).
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So if the goal is strategic stability, BMD is probably more undermining in both the short and long term than it is helpful. But that's a separate question from confidence in the systems as they exist today.
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Iron Dome
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