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At the end of the exercise, we have a "debriefing" where we talk about how it went and how it compared to the actual history. And when it goes off the rails, the students often want to know how "realistic" a possibility that would have been.
And the answer is simple: pretty realistic! In fact, it is what happened *every other time* a similar treaty was proposed, prior to 1968 (Ireland started pushing for a treaty of this sort over a decade before). There was nothing fated about what happened in 1968.
Such is the nature of treaties and diplomacy. After the fact it is easy to say, "of course it had to work out that way." But in reality these things are always tetchy at the time. And hardly obviously successful from the first day.
Even the NPT had MANY non-signatories originally. Including three nuclear nations (China, France, Israel) and several emerging nuclear powers (Brazil, Argentina, India). It took until the 1990s until it really became more of an absolute "norm" to be a NPT member state.pic.twitter.com/oA5wYx8uVP
The students always rate it highly in their evals. Not just because they are not taking a test, I think, but because it gives them a first-hand glimpse into how tricky diplomacy is, how contingent history is, and how even iron-clad norms take decades to really evolve.
Anyway. Happy 50th birthday, NPT! You're not perfect, but what product of true diplomacy really is? Let's hope you still have some good years left in you.
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