Obviously, I don't go into these discussions thinking that I am going to convince you or others committed to the deterrence position to get behind preventive war. But these discussions can nonetheless be clarifying for people who are more open to persuasion (either way).https://twitter.com/wellerstein/status/1015044576485232640 …
(While you're at it, your model also would suggest preemptively attacking Pakistan, would it not? For is the risk of terrorist acquisition not non-zero? What are the long-term odds that UK, France, India, and Israel will remain permanent US allies? Where does such logic end?)
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(Separately, I don't think dismissing people with relevant expertise who disagree with you as being not "open to persuasion" is a very intellectually rigorous approach. I'm pretty open to persuasion. The logic needs to be good though. This is half-baked, and irresponsibly so.)
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