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wellerstein's profile
Alex Wellerstein
Alex Wellerstein
Alex Wellerstein
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@wellerstein

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Alex WellersteinVerified account

@wellerstein

Historian of science, secrecy, and nuclear weapons. Professor of STS at @FollowStevens. UC Berkeley alum with a Harvard PhD. NUKEMAP creator. Coder and web dev.

Hoboken, NJ / NYC
blog.nuclearsecrecy.com
Joined September 2011

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    1. Kevin James‏ @kevinrogerjames 5 Jul 2018
      • Report Tweet

      Kevin James Retweeted Alex Wellerstein

      Obviously, I don't go into these discussions thinking that I am going to convince you or others committed to the deterrence position to get behind preventive war. But these discussions can nonetheless be clarifying for people who are more open to persuasion (either way).https://twitter.com/wellerstein/status/1015044576485232640 …

      Kevin James added,

      Alex WellersteinVerified account @wellerstein
      Replying to @wellerstein @kevinrogerjames
      (And if your model doesn't admit such considerations... consider revising your model.)
      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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    2. Kevin James‏ @kevinrogerjames 5 Jul 2018
      • Report Tweet

      North Korea's nuke program is placing the lives of millions of Americans at risk. If one thinks that deterrence is the right response, there are two ways to go. A) deterrence will work almost perfectly, so there is no risk. I don't think that an open-minded person would agree.

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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    3. Kevin James‏ @kevinrogerjames 5 Jul 2018
      • Report Tweet

      or B) Deterrence might have a high failure prob, but prev war is unethical so people just have to live with the risk that NK's nuke program creates. I don't think most people would agree (but we can see).https://www.nationalreview.com/2017/08/nuclear-weapons-taboo-breaking-majority-americans-support-save-troops-lives-conventional-warfare/ …

      1 reply 0 retweets 1 like
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    4. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 5 Jul 2018
      • Report Tweet
      Replying to @kevinrogerjames

      Look, I don't love nuclear deterrence. But if your options are "kill hundreds of thousands/millions because you fear it might fail in the future" or "find other ways to create as much stability as you can while you diplomacy it out" — only one of those doesn't lead to Nuremberg.

      2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
      Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 5 Jul 2018
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      Replying to @wellerstein @kevinrogerjames

      If you can't see that the risk of deterrence failing is not constant, but contextual... then you're gonna have a hard time understanding history. Both Cuban Missile Crisis and the War Scare of '83 were a result of bad policies. There are better and worse ways to do deterrence.

      8:38 PM - 5 Jul 2018
      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        1. New conversation
        2. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 5 Jul 2018
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @wellerstein @kevinrogerjames

          And I guess what I'm saying is, if you're going to say, "oh, the people in favor of deterrence rather than preventative war aren't stating how much they don't think deterrence is a permanently stable solution," fine, BUT —

          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        3. Alex Wellerstein‏Verified account @wellerstein 5 Jul 2018
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @wellerstein @kevinrogerjames

          you've also gotta admit, straight up, that your own "rational" approach would have led to a slaughter that would have made WWII look tame, and possibly (depends on the megatonnage) put much of the world at risk anyway from the knock-off effects.

          2 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        4. Kevin James‏ @kevinrogerjames 6 Jul 2018
          • Report Tweet
          Replying to @wellerstein

          Wait—I think this is your approach! The world was definitely at high risk during Cold War. A nuke exchange in 1983 would indeed have made WW2 look tame, and knock on effects would have put much of the world at risk

          0 replies 0 retweets 0 likes
        5. End of conversation

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