North Korea: There Is No Such Thing As Stable Deterrence
The idea that the US can enter into a *stable* deterrence relationship with NK is as delusional as the idea that NK will happily go along with CVID.
@JChengWSJ @RLHeinrichs @AmbJohnBoltonhttps://www.realcleardefense.com/articles/2018/07/03/north_korea_there_is_no_such_thing_as_stable_deterrence_113573.html …
If you replace "North Korea" with "the Soviet Union" and dial the date back to 1953, do you reach different conclusions? Because a lot of American analysts said the same thing then — and argued for preventative war. And their logic was good. Except... we somehow made it work.
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(This is, I will admit, an imperfect comparison — because the US and USSR actually did, after decades, reach parity. That's not going to happen with DPRK — they simply lack the resources for that. Unlike the USSR, they will never be able to threaten US strategic response.)
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Which may make them more fearful. Additionally, does China increase its arsenal to keep pace? At what point does North Korea make China's deterrent no longer minimally credible?
End of conversation
New conversation -
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Note that the Soviet Union/Russia and the United States had numerous close calls from 1955 to 1995 or one every four years.
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