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My hopes for the summit: if the US and DPRK can get into a position that reassures both leaders to the point where they are unlikely to blunder into war anytime soon, then I'll call it a success. It's a low bar, but I'll take it.
Failure would be a total breakdown and return to hostile conditions, or with the US and DPRK walking away with unworkable "deal" that is based on misunderstanding or deception. Both of which are (unfortunately) within the possible imagination.
My prediction is that they will commit to a vague, non-verifiable, no-timeline idea of disarmament, and all parties will declare it a success if the talks don't just breakdown immediately. If it decreases chances of war, I'm OK with that, even if it's not a real "fix."
People have been hard on Trump for being so easily flattered into this whole thing, when previous Presidents (both parties) have demanded more from DPRK prior to a summit, in the idea of not rewarding bad behavior. Clearly that approach didn't work, and fueled DPRK resentment.
(Saying such, I should hope should be obvious, is not me trying to attribute some kind of diplomatic genius to Trump or anything. I think he has indeed been easily flattered and fooled into this thing. But if reduces the chance of him starting a war, then, again, I'll take it.)
This seems sensible, except that Donald on Tuesdays is not Donald on Wednesdays.
True enough.
This is what we had a deterrence posture for, including joint military exercises. It worked rather well for a very long time.
Of course it will be a "success" because the deal was done a while ago. There is no threat. Trump will come out of it though and claim he "saved the world". What he is REALLY doing is bending over for the Russians.
Trump just got Buggered
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