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Doesn't every reasonably numerate person do that? Surely anyone who thinks some things are absolutely true is just a bit dim?
A lot of people will say something like "I think it's pretty likely that x is true, but ~x isn't impossible." What almost nobody does is break x down into its component factual bases & independently assign numerical probabilities to those, then follow through to the implications
This is one of fruity achievements of evolution. The process you have described operates continuously, but we may not be aware of it.
Ah yes! I agree. I myself only do that sometimes, I admit. And to be honest I do it more when I think the values are not to hard to estimate, as opposed to when I think the matter is important. Also dim, or lazy, or both...
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