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We're currently living happily in what is, considered from the vantage point of our poor ancestors, any number of #2s.
We, present day, are the poor ancestors of the future. That fact is not orthogonal to whether things we think would be devastating would be so to them.
Considering 2 as 2a (cost spread of catastrophic event rn) x 2b (risk of catastrophic event rn), it's plausible to me that 1 is improving while 2a & 2b are both worsening. But even if you think 2a is increasingly mitigated by 1, 2b does seem largely orthogonal to 1 & on the rise
