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"I mean, surely people are *differentially* terrible."
– @juliagalef, (sort of) defending higher education on @Rspodcast with @bryan_caplan
http://rationallyspeakingpodcast.org/show/rs-202-bryan-caplan-on-the-case-against-education.html …pic.twitter.com/9psOdABdQZ
My relatively uninformed guess is that if you were to look at the population by terribleness bracket, the least terrible 20% would be highly educated, but the least terrible 2% would sort of be all over the place (though still more educated than the general population).
Still, not confident at all that education is a strong causal factor in a typical not-so-terrible thinker being not-so-terrible. Relative to being locked in a box for the first two decades of life, sure. Relative to just sort of going about life doing stuff? Maybe not so much.
Humanity, on the whole, spent most of its existence deeply failing to think scientifically. Only recently has that started to change. That didn't change because we suddenly got smarter.
I expect humanity on the whole *has* gotten smarter, due to factors like falling prevalence of malnutrition.
Can't speak for other areas, but doing research in theoretical physics or pure math can be a way of learning to be good at tackling hard problems. Mostly because you learn heuristics to deal with being very, very stuck & confused!
Of course, this is a tiny, tiny and very atypical subset of "education". Still, the atypicalities are interesting, particularly the (fairly) common emphasis on letting students find their own problems, and often on letting them struggle quite a bit with the stuckness.
Number of different kinds of big picture terribleness. 1. People who're ignorant of scientific analysis. Confuse anecdotal for universal. 2. People who're educated & over estimate their ability to predict outcomes. 3. Much smaller segment that's both educated & skeptical.
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