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webdevMason's profile
Mason 🏃‍♂️✂️
Mason 🏃‍♂️✂️
Mason  🏃‍♂️ ✂️
@webdevMason

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Mason  🏃‍♂️ ✂️

@webdevMason

patreon.com/masonhartman
Joined July 2015

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    1. Mason  🏃‍♂️ ✂️‏ @webdevMason Nov 2
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      I'm pretty confident that the election tomorrow is going to be close. Two key factors: (1) the "shy Trump voter" effect/preference falsification in polling (as in 2016), (2) increased voter interest & turnout. I think these pull in different directions. I give a Trump win ~30-40%

      30 replies 1 retweet 155 likes
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    2. Mason  🏃‍♂️ ✂️‏ @webdevMason Nov 2
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      As usual, this comes down to what you think a handful of states will do. I think Pennsylvania and Arizona both have a pretty good shot at being pivotal. I won't be surprised if both go to either Trump or Biden.

      6 replies 0 retweets 43 likes
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    3. If you meet 60+-year-olds, quarantine like one‏ @poiThePoi Nov 2
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      Replying to @webdevMason

      And Florida. And Georgia (That suburban swing has to pay off sometime, right?) The good news is that if the Upper Midwest weakness is real, and I think it's real *enough*, Biden only needs one.

      1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
      Mason  🏃‍♂️ ✂️‏ @webdevMason Nov 2
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      Replying to @poiThePoi

      My guess is that OH, GA, NC & FL go to Trump, while Biden retains WI & NV. Obviously this implies that I think there's something pretty seriously wrong with polling under the current circumstances, but we'll just have to wait to find out!

      1:54 PM - 2 Nov 2020
      • 4 Likes
      • 🚀 𝕯𝖗𝖆𝖌𝖔𝖓 𝕲𝖔𝖉 🚀 greengrocer If you meet 60+-year-olds, quarantine like one
      1 reply 0 retweets 4 likes
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        1. If you meet 60+-year-olds, quarantine like one‏ @poiThePoi Nov 2
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          Replying to @webdevMason

          If you meet 60+-year-olds, quarantine like one Retweeted Benjy Sarlin

          I mean, that's basically a reasonable "One miracle" failure mode. GA and FL are tight, FL is weird, if you're wrong in GA, you could be wrong in NC and AZ for similar reasons... And I don't trust PA. Fracking bans, riots, and he's up by 5?https://twitter.com/BenjySarlin/status/1323334687234969600 …

          If you meet 60+-year-olds, quarantine like one added,

          Benjy SarlinVerified account @BenjySarlin
          Replying to @BenjySarlin @conorsen @DKThomp
          This cracks me up: Crystal Ball lists FL as R and their reason is explicitly the same as nervous D's and contains the caveat they've been wrong four cycles in a row (!!!!) https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/21320// … pic.twitter.com/PB5sVRqaqq
          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
        2. If you meet 60+-year-olds, quarantine like one‏ @poiThePoi Nov 2
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          Replying to @poiThePoi @webdevMason

          If you meet 60+-year-olds, quarantine like one Retweeted Benjy Sarlin

          https://twitter.com/BenjySarlin/status/1323335659323613187 …

          If you meet 60+-year-olds, quarantine like one added,

          Benjy SarlinVerified account @BenjySarlin
          Replying to @NickRiccardi @conorsen @DKThomp
          I don't even object, it just cracks me up that it's: You, a rube on Twitter: Don't believe the polls, Florida gonna Florida Me, the preeminent election forecaster: Don't believe the polls, Florida gonna Florida
          1 reply 0 retweets 0 likes
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