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I'm pretty confident that the election tomorrow is going to be close. Two key factors: (1) the "shy Trump voter" effect/preference falsification in polling (as in 2016), (2) increased voter interest & turnout. I think these pull in different directions. I give a Trump win ~30-40%
As usual, this comes down to what you think a handful of states will do. I think Pennsylvania and Arizona both have a pretty good shot at being pivotal. I won't be surprised if both go to either Trump or Biden.
Cool. Wanna bet?
And Florida. And Georgia (That suburban swing has to pay off sometime, right?) The good news is that if the Upper Midwest weakness is real, and I think it's real *enough*, Biden only needs one.
My guess is that OH, GA, NC & FL go to Trump, while Biden retains WI & NV. Obviously this implies that I think there's something pretty seriously wrong with polling under the current circumstances, but we'll just have to wait to find out!
I think Mark Kelly probably does a lot to bring Arizona to Biden.
I see a lot of Trump signs and flags popping up in yards in SW PA. I've seen a few Jo Jorgensen signs popping too (but very few).
I think the "blue shift" factor is in play. We likely won't know the results, the day of. Mail-in voters tend to be democrats and the counting may just take a while.
Plausible!
in flyover country there are no shy pres voters in the Midwest. Folks plaster signs. Fly flags. T shirts. Willingly dump family and friends. I am sure in big blue states like CA there are down low pres backers. Called surviving. But not OH, WI, MI etc.
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