As usual, this comes down to what you think a handful of states will do. I think Pennsylvania and Arizona both have a pretty good shot at being pivotal. I won't be surprised if both go to either Trump or Biden.
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I'm pretty confident that the election tomorrow is going to be close. Two key factors: (1) the "shy Trump voter" effect/preference falsification in polling (as in 2016), (2) increased voter interest & turnout. I think these pull in different directions. I give a Trump win ~30-40%
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I don't know about "shy Trump voter" effect. I think it applied in 2016, but in 2020 the vast majority of Trump supporters seem to be out-and-proud.
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Have you seen the battleground states EV stats?https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/
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30% is pretty high, and I wouldn't be surprised if there's a shy Biden voter effect in places like Texas.
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IMO the strength/direction of the shy voter effect is more likely delineated along urban/suburban vs. rural lines than state lines, and will fairly broadly favor Trump. But it's very difficult to predict, for obvious reasons
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Literally no evidence of "shy Trump voters". 2016 was bc of undersampling the less educated and undecideds breaking for Trump The idea that people are lying in anonymous polls is absurd
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after what happened to Labour in the last British general, "absurd" is difficult to credit
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I hope that polling companies are taking the shy conservative thing into account by now. If polls are accurate then it probably isn't going to be close. Also think the Trump stealing the election fears some have are misplaced because it won't be close/no opportunity.
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They are. In 2016, survey answers of white people without a college degree weren't weighted as strongly as now. This is a large group that leans Rep and tends to avoid participating in surveys.
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