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Most important to me, personally, is remembering that this is not normal. It is not normal for a city official anywhere in the United States to unilaterally declare that allowing a friend or colleague into your home is a crime punishable by fine or imprisonment.pic.twitter.com/XuNi5gnoVF
To cap, I should reiterate that I still take COVID seriously. 10 months in, case fatality globally is still at around 0.5-5%, quite bad given that we've had time to build out test capacity. As with SARS, signs of longer-term damage in recovered patients. Avoid this if you can.
Sad sign of the times how few people can hold two the two ideas in their head at once: lockdowns are unjust, and covid is a big deal you should avoid. Almost everybody protesting lockdowns also adopts nonsensical factual positions about the virus being implausibly mild.
Welcome to the lonely intersection of two sets.
Back when I cared a lot about it, or rather when I thought it mattered for winning the debate, I estimated something like ~0.2% for IFR, which of course I argued was small. Then I realized it was irrelevant. We have no criteria for what any metric can justify this or that policy.
At the time we were all arguing like, "Oh if it goes past 1%, we need to lock down completely" (or vice versa), of which both sides were saying something nonsensical. There was a giant gap between those numbers and deciding what to *do* about them.
Case fatality rate is skewed bc considers the sickest. Infection fatality rate, determined by considering population antibody tests, does vary geographically, but is mostly well below 1%. Of course it is serious, but to be precise mostly serious for elderly.
Still not sure about "long haulers". (Any recent studies?) Other viruses do have long term impacts. E.g, flu can seriously impact the heart, among other things. My current thinking is it's more serious than the flu, but also the flu is more serious than we give credit.
A solid strategy is really good ppe for everyone and effective mAbs therapies. This *could* be achieved immediately with the right funding, whereas a vaccine is not guaranteed to be effective. Indeed the long morbidity implications are what make this virus frightening.
The same # ppl die w/ lockdowns as w/o. Lockdowns just slow the spread and prevent overwhelming of hospitals - already done long ago.https://twitter.com/ramzpaul/status/1306747836982349826?s=20 …
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