Mason  🏃‍♂️ ✂️

Same thing is true for vaccine effectiveness or even herd immunity (which kills before it works). They all work by reducing R0

the point is that masks may not in fact reduce R0, if they cause you to act in a way that puts you in close contact with more people, go indoors with more frequency, etc.

They do that only if you assume it changes behavior. We have no proof of that. But we know, ceteris paribus, that there is less transmission with masks. I am unconvinced that the White House acted more or less recklessly due to using masks.

In any case it is just as stupid to say don't use them because it will stimulate risky behavior as it would be to encourage riding motorcycles in flip flops shirtless and with no helmet.

If you're implying I said don't use them you should re-read the part where I said you'd be crazy to not use them.

My point was that a year or two from now I put a non-zero probability on a study showing that mask wearing, the cultural practice, across all 'masks' (not just N95s) had a statistically insignificant effect on R0, or even increased it.

For my part, I think mask-wearing has contributed to a visceral sense of safety indoors on a per-instance basis that's unjustified, all considered, but has also helped maintain a COVID salience that's reduced my overall willingness to go indoors. How this shakes out, I dunno!

Yep agree - if I were to go further out on this limb I suspect it would go like most sociological experiements - behavior from masks will be largely laden by personal biases and selfish desires - eg if you *want* to do risky behavior X, masks give you a mental crutch to allow it.