Nobody seems to be making much of it, but 538 is currently giving Trump almost exactly the same odds for a 2020 win as it did in 2016pic.twitter.com/cxwZ3kdLnQ
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I'm starting to get the sense that nobody understands how models built on Monte Carlo simulations work. Obviously we'd be in a different situation if the election were tomorrow. The obvious fact is that it is not.
Uncertainty nets a wider spread of outcomes. But if you're running 40,000 simulations, the clusters will still be instructive. Can they tell you as much under high uncertainty? No. But if you run it again & assume tighter constraints for no good reason, you only confuse yourself.
