Nobody seems to be making much of it, but 538 is currently giving Trump almost exactly the same odds for a 2020 win as it did in 2016pic.twitter.com/cxwZ3kdLnQ
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We *definitely* saw that in 2016. The difference was that a lot of them said they intended to vote for the third party candidate, Johnson. When the day came, support for Johnson mysteriously collapsed and appears to have shifted almost entirely to Trump.
Cite? From what I can find, Johnson's poll numbers pretty accurately reflected what (few) votes he got.
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