Nobody seems to be making much of it, but 538 is currently giving Trump almost exactly the same odds for a 2020 win as it did in 2016pic.twitter.com/cxwZ3kdLnQ
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It’s mostly due to uncertainty this early in the cycle, not based on current polling. There is so much that can happen that would impact polls. If we are getting same polls in October then Biden would be close to sure thing.
And that's exactly why it's wise to use a model that simulates the range of outcomes based on the situation you're actually in today.
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I feel this model does that. At least for me my first reaction was “why is it only 70% for Biden? Current polls show Biden easily winning”. Digging in the answer is that historically a lot can change in 100 days and this election has a lot going on compared to most.
Thanks. Twitter will use this to make your timeline better. UndoUndo
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